
Rishi Sunak is facing a ‘war of attrition’ by Tory rebels, with May shaping up to be the biggest moment of danger.
Even though no MP has openly called for the PM to resign, as former minister Simon Clarke did, the PM’s internal opponents are bracing for a protracted effort to remove him as several challenges lie ahead in the coming months.
Conservatives fear ignominious defeat in two more by-elections taking place in Wellingborough and Kingswood on February 15.
The premier will face yet another important test on March 6 when Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presents his budget, which comes after both he and Mr Sunak raised the possibility of significant tax cuts.
The following week, Westminster expects to see a battle with the House of Lords as peers are due to finalise scrutiny of the Rwanda Bill.
If Mr Sunak successfully navigates through all those minefields, the May 2 local elections might result in significant losses for the Conservatives in mayoral and council races, unless the polls have drastically changed.
Some MPs argue that many colleagues privately share Sir Simon’s belief that Mr Sunak cannot win an election and that this will be the pivotal moment, making a leadership challenge by summer unavoidable.
‘What Simon has said resonates with a lot of people,’ one former minister told MailOnline. ‘Rishi isn’t moving the dial, and if he hasn’t moved in the past year, is he going to move before the next election.’
The Member of Parliament also refuted the notion that it will be too late to pick a new leader in the summer, with November being the preferred date.
‘It wouldn’t be ludicrous to have another leadership election,’ they said. ‘We are walking into an utter disaster. Another leader could do no worse and might do better.
‘Who says it is too late? It is never too late to change course.
The senior Tory added: ‘The only people who will be criticising us changing leader are the people who fear they might be better.’
Despite the manoeuvring, there are doubts over who may succeed Mr Sunak, according to an Ipsos UK survey.
About 42 per cent of Tory voters in 2019 had a positive opinion of Mr Sunak; Chancellor Jeremy Hunt followed at 38 per cent; and Home Secretary James Cleverly at 28 per cent.
With a net favorability rating of +13, the PM ranked far higher than his Chancellor and Home Secretary, who had ratings of +7 and +2, respectively.
Additionally, there wasn’t much of a difference between Mr Sunak and potential outsiders for the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Among 2019 Tory voters, former prime minister Boris Johnson had a 43 per cent favorability rating; nevertheless, his 34 per cent unfavorability rating was greater than Mr Sunak’s.
They put Rishi Sunak in No. 10 without any vote or even Tory member approval. Now they will suffer the horrendous consequences of a total wipeout. They’ve taken the electorate for fools for far too long, and now many of those fools will vote Reform.
I believe that many people will vote for Reform, but to gain any seats in this rotten FPTP electoral system, Reform needs to climb above the Conservatives in the polls.
Hopefully, people will continue to support Reform despite Rishi Sunak’s election giveaway bribery.
There is little doubt that the opposing parties’ divergent goals will prevent them from ever producing the outcomes that the silent majority so earnestly desires.
The Tory Party is run by the upper classes, now the upper caste – fools who have no idea of reality and are still living in the 1930s.