The future of Right-wing politics in Britain is being decided on the cigar terraces of Mayfair. As the opinion poll surge of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK shakes the foundations of the Conservatives, power-brokers from both parties are cutting deals and war-gaming defections on adjoining tables in the capital’s most salubrious salons.
The Tories have been defined as the most thriving political party globally, on the back of 200 years of near-electoral power. But if leader Kemi Badenoch will maintain that standing until the next election, it will need a resurgence of Lazarus-like dimensions.
According to a YouGov poll last week, Mr Farage would win 271 seats if an election were held now – well ahead of Labour on 178. The Conservatives would follow the Liberal Democrats on a sad seat of merely 48 seats.
It has led to long, dark nights of the soul for Tory grandees and donors: do they stick with the Conservatives, even if they are sleepwalking to electoral doom? Do they try to form a pact with Mr Farage? Or do they simply jump ship entirely?
The result has been a string of lunches and dinners in ultra-exclusive clubs such as 5 Hertford Street and its sister establishment Oswald’s, both owned by entrepreneur Robin Birley.
Oswald’s, which is frequented by the likes of the Prince of Wales, Tony Blair, Boris Johnson and the Beckhams, was the venue for a dazzling £1 million fundraising event for Reform earlier this year.
And on a single day this month, the same lunch service at Oswald’s boasted former prime minister David Cameron, his ex-chancellor George Osborne and Tory leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick all dining together, next to Mr Farage and his treasurer Nick Candy in an in-depth conversation on a nearby table – and with former Tory Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has advised the two parties to form a pact, delivering salutations from a third table.
In the same week, a short stroll across Berkley Square at 5 Hertford Street, popular with Eurocrats and celebrities such as Hugh Grant, a single lunch sitting offered the spectacle of billionaire Michael Spencer, Lord Cameron’s former treasurer, dining with Francis Maude, an ex-Tory chairman, under the sharp eyes of Mr Farage’s inner circle, including Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore – the self-styled ‘bad boys of Brexit’ who helped finance Mr Farage’s Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum – and Mr Farage’s mysterious fixer, ‘Posh’ George Cottrell.
As the wine flowed – full-bodied red for the Tories, chablis for the Faragistes – it represented a neat microcosm of the shifting tectonic plates: Lord Maude – tipped to return to the chairman role – is understood to have been lobbying Lord Spencer for funds for the party, while the Faragistes were drawing up a list of Tory donors to target for defection.
At the centre of this Venn diagram of plotting is Mr Jenrick, who is more open than Mrs Badenoch to cutting a deal with Reform – and is said to have received Lord Cameron’s support to succeed her as leader.
Meanwhile, at The In & Out private members’ club, a more traditional Armed Forces venue situated at the other end of Piccadilly, allies of Mr Farage and Mr Jenrick have met for casual conversations about ‘uniting the Right’. Conspirators have even floated the notion of Mr Jenrick serving as chancellor in a Farage administration, although both sides furiously deny any such plans.
Mr Jenrick has also lunched at 5 Hertford Street with Rupert Lowe, the Great Yarmouth MP who lost the Reform whip after a sensational bust-up with Mr Farage.
Even many moderate Conservatives, facing the loss of their seats, are now contemplating a merger.
One member of the Leftish One Nation group said: ‘A pact with Reform is inevitable now.’
The MP added: ‘There should be a non-aggression pact where we agree to not stand in the five seats Reform already have, and we let Nigel take his pick of seats where he is coming second to Labour. And Reform would stand down in seats we are more likely to win.
‘It would end up giving them the North to save the Home Counties.’
An insider said Tory leader Mrs Badenoch ‘would not be able to do the deal’ but added that the timing had to be right for her successor to do so.
The source said: ‘At the moment there no point doing any type of deal because Reform is on a high. Labour has imploded too early – all the benefit is going to Reform. Kemi isn’t nimble enough to capitalise on it.’
Mrs Badenoch is continuing to follow a ‘slow and steady’ approach and regularly talks to Lord Maude. ‘He tells her to be patient and give the public the chance to come around,’ the source said.
Even Mrs Badenoch’s most vociferous critics say a leadership challenge is unlikely in the near future. Says one: ‘She’s 99 per cent safe until May.
‘No one will want to own the next disaster – and there are a number coming down the line.’
All of Reform is made up of ex-Tories and we have seen what they have done to this country. They’re all clueless and couldn’t run a bath. The most alarming is that Reform is the Tory rejects.
The Tories have had their chance and have made the UK unrecognisable, but I don’t think that Remain will be any better, so who are we left with?
I grew up learning that you should protect your own, education was a privilege, hard workers were respected, the wealthy were looked up to and they frequently supported the community. We were respectful, we never littered, knife crime was almost non-existent and everyone knew everyone else, and we would help each other, all of this has gone!
Looking from a distance now – the time for the UK to get together with minor reforms is gone. We need a revolution or some kind of miracle!
It’s simple, the British people don’t want immigration – now entire towns and cities are foreign and we want our country back, and our government need to fix it or there will be civil war!
Personally, I couldn’t care less where they hold the meetings, it could be McDonald’s or the Savoy, as long as something changes for the better.
We are being told to vote for Reform, but they all say the same things just so that they can get elected. We have not produced anyone who will get things done for the people, and these talks that they have are about seizing control, not how to help the people.
Nothing has changed and nothing will if we keep giving power to people who are addicted to it. We need public servants who will put the country first, instead of thinking about how they can profit from it, their image and their bank account.
I will vote for a party that bans illegal immigrants, builds more prisons, gives offenders proper sentences, and gets rid of the Honours system.
Scrap overseas aid, and make MPs work full-time. We want more police walking out streets. Get rid of the Mayor of London, get rid of net zero, ban electric cars. I could go on and on, but we need to make Britain great again and our government should stop licking other countries bottoms.
Whatever party gets in, they will conspire to give us more of the same thing. We need a big change and the people’s voices to be heard loud and clear because they all betray the public. They all need to go and the public’s voice must be heard. The public must be in control because our government are a duplicitous pack of connivers.
THE MONTHLY MOSQUITO 